This post is the part 2 of
On the economic front, the US, EU and Japan, which occupied the majority of the world’s wealth as of 1990, accounted for only 10% in 2050. At that time Asia is expected to account for a majority of the world’s wealth. There is also a prediction that the world’s top economic superpower will become China rather than the US in 2050.
Losing economic hegemony leads to losing military hegemony. In the United States, tax revenues will decrease due to aging in the future, pension and medical expenses will increase sharply. In addition, around 2020 the US dollar will lose its status as an international reserve currency.
As financial conditions deteriorate, we have to reduce the military budget. Many of the Hispanics whose population is increasing rapidly agree to cut military budgets. In addition, economic dissatisfaction has accumulated among the people because real income continues to decline as the gap between rich and poor has expanded.
For this reason, there is a high possibility of taking isolationist-like foreign diplomacy measures, which leads to a reduction of the influential zone.As a result, the military power of the United States declines, and in the 2020s the US military can not continue to dominate the Middle East and East Asia simultaneously.
Reversal of dominance relationship between Western and East
Historian of Stanford University, Ian Morris forecast the degree of development of Western and the East civilizations by integrating the four criteria of available energy amount, population, information degree and military strength. According to it the East will reverse the West in 2103.
The reversal of east and west is the first event in human history since the east and west encountered. It is impossible to predict how people’s values will change. I do not know if the values that white people are superior race will be overturned.
Also, I do not know from Morris’ prediction what country of the East will hold hegemony. But one clear thing is that, at that time, the United States has lost its former momentum.
Thus, according to British linguist David Gradle’s prediction, “In the year 2050, English will lose its only international language and be just one of several international languages,” he Says.
Even though America loses hegemony, many people think that English continues to be in the international language. I want such people to think about currency. In the past 10 years each country in the world such as the Middle East, EU, China, Russia etc have switched their settlement currencies from dollars to their own currencies and euro by stages.
Looking at the decline of the United States, they are trying to drag the dollar off the seat of the key currency. Who can say that similar things will never happen to English?
Thank you for reading.
【To be continued】